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| An Empirical Study on the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on the Export Trade of China's Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry ABSTRACT China is a large foreign export trade country,and the pharmaceutical manufacturing industryis one of the important industries in our country's foreign trade, which has made important contributions to China's economic growth. However, in recent years,China is entering a critical period of economic slowdown and structural transformation. The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is also facing unprecedented challenges.These challenges come from the weakening of the international competitiveness of exportproducts brought about by the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate,from the continuous escalation of the Sino-US trade war, and from the trade protectionist measures. At the same time, under the background of the COVID-19 outbreak,the export volume of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry showed the characteristics of shrinking first and then breaking out. In this context, it is worth studying how the changes in the RMB exchange rate will affect our country’s exports of pharmaceutical products. This paper uses co-integration test and VAR model to find that when the export value of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is positively impacted by innovation in the real effective exchange rate of RMB in the short term. After that, the effect gradually disappeared, showing a long-term equilibrium.In the long run, for every 1% increase in the REER of RMB, the export volume will decrease by 0.2%.In order to avoid negative impacts,this paper first recommends that the government improve the export legislation and product standards of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. Second, pharmaceutical manufacturing export companies should innovate to improve their technological level, and at the same time enhance the awareness of exchange rate risk prevention, and use more financial derivatives to avoid exchange rate risk. Keywords: RMB exchange rate, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, export |
