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| 房地产行业对中国经济增长的影响
摘 要
房地产行业发展一直是国家经济发展中的重要部分。当下，房地产行业整体而言发展较为平稳，但是颓势显现，特别是在疫情的冲击下，发达城市房价下跌严重，房地产行业发展下滑更为严重。本文将综合运用数据分析、文献研究等方法进行分析研究。首先，将对房地产行业发展的研究背景进行简单阐述，阐明本文的研究目的及意义，对当前国内外研究现状进行文献综述。进而结合各方观点，澄清本文中房地产行业专指房地产开发经营。
其次，从宏观及微观角度对房地产行业进行考察。宏观角度，着重从GDP数值角度入手，探究房地产行业与宏观经济整体的关系，分析房地产行业对于经济的作用与贡献以及当前房地产行业发展的整体趋势；微观方面，首先，从房地产行业对相关的上下游产业的带动作用进行探究，继而，研究房地产行业对社会就业的作用和居住消费对居民消费结构的影响，分析房地产行业对于民生发展的作用。发现房地产行业对宏观经济发展作用巨大，与其他产业前向关联与后向关联性强，对上下游产业影响巨大。房地产行业在拉动就业方面贡献明显，同时，对相关产业的吸引就业能力起到间接带动作用。而房地产消费对居民消费影响巨大，房地产需求本身作为刚性需求，又逢房价过高，导致居民消费负担过重，难以释放消费活力。
最终，在前述研究的基础上，对当前房地产行业存在的金融风险高、整体发展相对滞缓以及泡沫化严重问题，从人口、行业及政策等方面分析其成因。研究得出房地产行业金融风险本质在于泡沫化问题严重，而泡沫化问题最主要根源是我国土地制度以及政府财政过度土地，翻炒地价，从而导致土地价格飞升。而房地产行业滞缓问题中，我国老龄化问题严重，新生人口不断减少和国家政策干预是重要根源。继而，本文从保护并促进房地产行业健康发展的角度出发，结合房地产业发展特点与国家房地产政策，以防止泡沫破裂与促进供求平衡两个方面为主，提出相应的对策措施，包括构建房地产合理税制，建立新型土地财政制度，督促企业对批租土地充分开发，加快完善房屋租赁市场以及加快区域一体化建设等措施。
关键词：房地产行业；经济增长；产业关联；泡沫化问题
Abstract
The development of real estate industry has always been an important part of national economic development. At present, the overall development of the real estate industry is relatively stable, but the decline appears,especially under the impact of theepidemic, the housing price in developed cities has fallen seriously, and the decline in the development of the real estate industry is even more serious. First of all, this paper will briefly explain the research background of the development of the real estate industry, clarify the purpose and significance of this research,and carry out a literature review of the current research status at home and abroad. Then, the thesis clarifies the meaning of the real estate industry in this paper.
Secondly, from the macro and micro point, view the real estate industry.From a macro perspective, the relationship between the real estate industry and the overall macro economy is explored from the perspective of GDP,and analyses the role and contribution of the real estate industry to the economy as well as the overall trend of the current development of the real estate industry. At the micro level, the driving effect of the real estate industryon the relevant upstream and downstream industries is first explored. Then, the role of the real estate industry in social employment and the impact of residential consumption on residents' consumption structure are studied,and the role of the real estate industry in the development of people's livelihood is analyzed.
Finally, on the basis of the foregoing research,this paper analyzes the causes of the high financial risk, relatively slow overall development and serious bubble problems in the current real estate industry from the aspects of population, industry and policy. Then, it focuses on the core problem in the real estate industry -- the bubble problem,and at the same time, the land finance system as the main reason of a more in-depth discussion. From the perspective of protecting and promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry, combining the development characteristics of the real estate industry and the national real estate policies, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures toprevent the bursting of the bubble and promote the balance between supply and demand.
Key words：Real estate industry；economic growth；industry associations；bubble problem
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