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| 非洲猪瘟下猪肉产业波动研究
摘 要
非洲猪瘟是一种病毒性疾病。自1921年首次诊断出ASF以来，目前还没有有效的疫苗来预防ASF，也还没有任何药物来治疗它。非洲猪瘟疫情对我国养猪业发展的影响，特别是是生猪产业链条价格可以产生一个宏大社会影响。以非洲猪瘟疫情为背景，研究中国生猪产业链条的价格及其传递制度，选择自从2018年1月直到2020年12月期间，以每周平均猪饲料价格和猪肉价格、仔猪、生猪为典例的生猪产业链价格，通过建设协整与误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果检验分析方法，分析非洲猪瘟在生猪产业链价格中的内部传导过程。实证结果证明，在非洲猪瘟疫病背景下，中国正在发展的生猪产业链条价格存在长期平衡的社会关系，但上下游企业价格传递受阻碍，屠宰场和产品市场的纵向一体化提高。生猪产业链有一定的反向纠错管理制度。生猪产业链条上中游对生猪产业链条下游的影响更加明显。在此基础上，提出了非洲猪瘟背景下我国生猪产业链条价格经济把控的政策实施建议。
关键词：非洲猪瘟；猪产业链；价格浮动；价格传递
Abstract
African Swine Fever is a viral disease.Since ASF was first diagnosed in 1921,there is no any effective vaccine to stop it, and no effective drug to cure it. The outbreak of African Swine Fever can have a tremendous social impact on the development of China's live pig industry, particularly the price of the live pigs industry chain. In order to learn the price relocations and transformation mechanism of the live pigs industry chain in China under the background of African swine fever pig(ASF), this article selects the weekly average piglet price,live pigs price and pork price from January 2018 to December 2020 in China,as the representatives of the pig industry chain price,analyzing the influence of African swine fever(ASF) on the price conduction process of the live pigs industry chain by constructing the co-integration and error correction model, and the granger causality test method. The consequence prove that there is a very long-term equilibrium condition betweenthe price of the live pigs industry chain in China under the backdrop of the African swine fever(ASF), but the price transmission of the upstream and downstream is blocked, and the vertical integration of slaughterhouses and sales markets is enhanced. There is a certain reverse error correction mechanism in the live pigs industry chain.The upstream and midstream of the live pigs industrychain have a more obvious impact on the lower prices. Based on this, the policy recommendations on controlling the price of the live pigs industry chain under the backdrop of African swine fever(ASF) in China are put forward.
Key words: African Swine Fever; Live pigs industry chain; Price fluctuations;Price conduction
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