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基于时空数据的新冠疫情分析及预测研究

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基于时空数据的新冠疫情分析及预测研究


摘要:2019年末,新型冠状病毒肺炎在国内爆发,并蔓延全球。最初人们并没有发现这种病毒具有强烈的人传人特性,发病率相对于SARS病毒较低,但是依旧有巨大的危险,它的存在威胁到了中国人民乃至世界各国人民。通过采取地理信息系统技术,对疫情数据进行空间分析,研究新冠肺炎新增病例的空间分布,有利于采取正确的策略控制疫情的继续蔓延。同时,运用时间序列模型进行短期预测研究,从而辅助有关部门制定相应的预防策略。研究目标在于通过收集和提供及时、详细、准确疾病的检疫、防治、监控、评估、治疗等综合信息,为实施区域经济的宏观管理和调控提供权威依据,提高领导层管理和决策的科学水平与调控能力。通过研究发现沿海区域新增病例较多,主要集中在香港,上海,澳门等地。

关键词:地理信息系统;新冠疫情;时空分析

Abstract:At the end of 2019,a new type of coronavirus pneumonia broke out in China and spread globally. Initially, people did not find that this virus has strong human-to-human transmission characteristics, and the incidence rate is lower than that of SARS virus, but there is still a huge danger. Its existence threatens the Chinese people and even the people of the world.By adopting geographic information system technology to conduct spatial analysis of epidemic data and study the spatial distribution of new cases of new coronary pneumonia,it is conducive to adopting correct strategies to control the continued spread of the epidemic. At the same time, the time series model is used to conduct short-term forecasting research to assist relevant departments in formulating corresponding prevention strategies. The research goal is to provide an authoritative basis for the implementation of regional economic macro management and control by collecting and providing timely,detailed and accurate comprehensive information on disease quarantine,prevention, monitoring, evaluation, and treatment, and to improve the scientific level of leadership management and decision-making. Control ability.Studies have found that there are more new cases in coastal areas, mainly in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Macau and other places.

Key words:Geographic Information System; New Crown Epidemic; Spatio-temporal Analysis