摘 要

 

2010年以来，中国综合国力的迅速增长使中美加快步入了战略竞争时代，对于菲律宾等东南亚小国而言，大国竞争成为了其制定对外政策的重要时代背景。为研究影响菲律宾对外政策走向的因素，本文借鉴了防御性现实主义中的“威胁平衡论”和新古典现实主义中的“利益平衡论”，选取“威胁”和“利益”两个变量，构建了“威胁-利益平衡”理论框架。该框架认为，菲律宾对来自中美两国对威胁和利益状况的感知影响了其对华及对美政策，出于对国家安全的考虑，对威胁的感知优先于对利益的感知。菲律宾对中美两国制造的威胁

 

和提供的利益多少的感知会使其在“忽视”、“制衡”、“软制衡”、“经济实用主义”、“约束性接触”和“追随”这六种对外政策倾向中做出9种不同的战略组合。为说明“威胁-利益平衡”理论框架具有合理性和实用性，本文以杜特尔特政府的对华及对美政策为案例，通过对2016-2020年中美两国对菲律宾政策及态度的分析，认为杜特尔特感知到的来自中美两国的威胁大致相等，而中国提供的利益多于美国，按照菲律宾政策行为分析表，杜特尔特会对中国进行“约束性接触”，而对美国保持“经济实用主义”态度，而事实上杜特尔特表现出来的对华及对美态度正与此相类。最后，本文对未来的中菲及美菲关系做了简单预测，认为在南海局势平稳的条件下中菲关系会稳步发展，而拜登上任后的美国将强化与菲律宾的同盟关系，同时新冠疫情仍然是影响菲律宾未来外交政策的重要不确定因素。

 

关键词：威胁-利益平衡 菲律宾 对外政策 杜特尔特

 

ABSTRACT

 

Since 2010, the rapid growth of China's comprehensive national strength hasaccelerated China and the United States into the era of strategic competition. For the small countries in Southeast Asia such as the Philippines,a competition between two great powers has become an important historical background for their foreign policies. In order to study the factors that affect the direction of Philippine foreign policy,this paper draws on the "balance of threat theory" of Defensive Realism and the "balance of interest theory" of Neo-classical Realism, and selects two variables,"threat" and "interest" to construct the theoretical framework of "balance of threat-interest". According to the framework, the Philippine perception of threats and interests fromChina and the United States affects its policies toward them,the perception of threats takes priority over the perception of interests for the sake of national security. The Philippine perceived threats and interests posed by China and the United States would lead it to make nine different strategic combinations among the six foreign policy behaviors: "neglect", " balance", "soft balance", "economic pragmatism", "binding contact" and "bandwagon". In order to illustrate the "balance of threat-interest" framework has the rationality and practicability, this paper takes Duterte administration’s foreign policy towards China and the United States as a case, through the analysis of the two powers’ policies and attitudes to Philippines during the period of 2016-2020, we come to the conclusion that the threat Duterte perceived from China and the United States is roughly equal, but China provides more interest than the United States. According to the policy behaviors analysis table, Duterte will adopt "binding contact" to China,and keep "economic pragmatism" attitude to the United States, as a matter of fact,the attitudes that Duterte administration have showed to China and the United States are similar to our analysis. Finally, this paper makes a simple prediction of Sino-Philippines and US-Philippines relations in the future, and holds that under the condition of stable situation inthe South China Sea, China-Philippines relations will develop steadily,and the United States will strengthen its alliance with the Philippines after Biden took office. Meanwhile, COVID-19 will still be an important uncertain factoraffecting the future foreign policy of the Philippines.

 

KEY WORDS: balance of threat-interest the Philippines foreign policy Duterte