中文摘要

我国于2013年11月8日正式上市了鸡蛋期货，是我国上市的第一个生鲜类期货品种。它的上市丰富了我国农产品期货的品种，对于整个期货市场具有非常重要的意义。本文分析鸡蛋期货市场的发展状况，以及了解鸡蛋期货第二大功能的发挥情况，丰富鸡蛋期货市场的研究，给监管部门、投资者、养殖户、相关企业提供对策建议，这不仅有助于鸡蛋期货市场的发展，也有助于鸡蛋现货市场的健康发展。

在现状分析部分通过生产、消费、贸易、持仓量、成交量、成交额、投机度等一些指标的变化介绍鸡蛋期现货市场的发展情况，从鸡蛋的产量、进出口、消费情况，来介绍现货市场的运行状况。然后，从鸡蛋期货合约的成交量、持仓量、换手率和交割情况，来介绍期货市场的运行情况。

实证分析部分本文选取大连商品交易所鸡蛋期货主力合约和近月合约每日结算价格，鸡蛋现货四大主产区和三大主销区每日平均价格，进行实证分析，得出结论：鸡蛋现货价格对近月结算价格具有引导作用，但现货价格对主力结算价格无引导力；鸡蛋近月结算价和主力价，在一定程度上都具有价格发现功能，但近月合约结算价价格发现功能明显强于主力合约。

由以上分析提出了四点建议：（1）完善现货市场，规范期货市场。（2）推进鸡蛋期现货市场的结合。（3）增加机构投资者数量，完善投资领域。（4）推动鸡蛋“保险+期货”市场化。

关键词：鸡蛋，价格发现，近月结算价，主力结算价，实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Price Discovery Function of Egg Futures Market in China

Abstract

China officially listed egg futures on November 8, 2013, which is the first fresh futures in China.Its listing enriches the varieties of China's agricultural productsfutures, which is of great significance to the whole futures market. This paper analyzes the development of the egg futures market,as well as understanding the second function of the egg futures market, enriches the research of the egg futures market,and provides countermeasures and suggestions for regulatory departments, investors, farmers and related enterprises, which is not only conducive to the development of the egg futures market, but also conducive to the healthy development of the egg spot market.

In the current situation analysis part, through the changes of production, consumption,trade, position, trading volume, turnover, speculation and other indicators,this paper introduces the development of the egg futures spot market,and introduces the operation of the spot market from the production, import and export, and consumption of eggs. Then, from the egg futures contract trading volume, position,turnover and delivery, to introduce the operation of the futures market.

In the part of empirical analysis, this paper selects the daily settlement prices of the main contract and recent month contract of egg futures in Dalian Commodity Exchange, and the daily average prices of the four main producing areas and three main selling areas of egg spot for empirical analysis, and draws the conclusion that the spot price of egg has a guiding role in the recent month settlement price,but the spot price has no guiding role in the main settlement price The main price, to some extent,has the function of price discovery, but the function of price discovery of settlement price of recent month contract is obviously stronger than that of main contract.

From the above analysis,four suggestions are put forward: (1) improve the spot market and standardize the futures market. (2) Promote the combination of egg futures and spot markets.(3) Increase the number of institutional investors and improve the investment field.(4) We will promote the marketization of "insurance + futures" for eggs.

Key words: egg, price discovery,settlement price in recent months, main settlement price, empirical analysis