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| 泰国对华冷冻虾产品出口贸易的现状、问题与对策研究
摘要：虾是泰国重要的渔业出口产品，具有生产和出口到国外的潜力。主要出口市场是日本、美国和欧洲。不过，在被相关国家取消税收优惠待遇（GSP）后，泰国对美国和欧盟市场的虾出口下降，导致中国市场在泰国虾业中发挥了更大的作用。目前，中国仍在不断增加从泰国的虾产品进口，特别是冷冻虾产品。
本文主要研究泰国对华冷冻虾产品出口贸易的现状、问题与对策。为了分析泰国冷冻虾在中国市场上的竞争潜力，本文首先构建模型，利用2015-2019年间的数据，研究泰国与两个主要竞争国家——厄瓜多尔和印度——在对华的冷冻虾出口贸易方面的贸易竞争力指数(TC)、市场份额指数(MS)、以及显示性比较优势指数(RCA)方面的差异。研究发现，泰国对华冷冻虾贸易竞争力指数低于厄瓜多尔和印度。此外，泰国显示性比较优势指数也低于前述两个国家。对于市场份额指数，虽然泰国每年倾向于促进增加对中国的出口，但研究样本显示：样本最后一年（2019年）泰国对华冷冻虾产品的市场份额指数也是下降的。这反映目前泰国对华冷冻虾贸易竞争力不如前述两个国家。其次，通过调研和大量资料分析，结合竞争力研究，发现影响泰国对华冷冻虾产品出口贸易存在许多问题，因为泰国虾业的生产成本高于竞争对手，使其无法增加生产潜力，并导致泰国冷冻虾的价格高于外国，引起泰国冷冻虾出口在竞争中处于劣势。具体说来，泰国养殖虾的农民资金短缺、原料和劳动力不足、培养面积有限，使得成本要高于竞争对手，不能充分提高生产能力以满足消费者需求；泰国冷冻虾出口也受到全球经济的泰铢升值影响，而且有贸易壁垒问题；而目前最主要的问题是泰国虾业务的结构和生产能力非优。然而，当前政府并没有解决这些问题的好的政策和解决方案。
本文认为，泰国冷冻虾产品在许多方面还是具有自身特点和优势的。比如，泰国虾产品有明确的质量标准、并且可以追溯。虾行业目前很好地应对疫情。此外，根据中国和东盟等最新签署的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP），泰国对中国虾类产品出口不需缴纳关税，等等，使泰国与厄瓜多尔和印度等竞争相比具有竞争优势。因此，本文建议，为了进一步发展和促进泰国冷冻虾高效生产和对中国的出口，泰国政府应出台新的鼓励促进对华虾出口的措施，如对虾农实行减税，帮助企业家解决虾业劳动力缺乏问题，鼓励虾农和出口商改进技术和降低成本，优化贸易程序，细化《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》实施措施，增加竞争优势。
关键词：泰国；冷冻虾；对华贸易；竞争力
Abstract: Shrimp is an important fishery export product in Thailand, with the potential to be produced and exported abroad. The main export markets are Japan, the United States and Europe.However, Thailand’s shrimp exports to the U.S.and EU markets have declined after the cancellation of the tax preference treatment (GSP) by therelevant countries, leading the Chinese market to play a greater role in the Thai shrimp industry. At present, China is still increasing imports of shrimp products from Thailand, especially frozen shrimp products.
This article mainly studies the current situation,problems and countermeasures of Thailand's frozen shrimp export to China. In order to analyze the competitive potential of Thai frozen shrimp in the Chinese market,this article first builds a model and uses the data from 2015 to 2019 to study Thailand'sfrozen shrimp export to China with two major competitors-Ecuador and India,through the differences in trade competitiveness index (TC), market share index (MS), and revealed comparative advantage index (RCA). The study found that Thailand's trade competitivenessindex of frozen shrimp is lower than Ecuador and India. In addition, Thailand's revealed comparative advantage index is also lower than the aforementioned two countries. Regarding the market share index,although Thailand tends to increase exports to China every year, the research sample shows that the market share index of Thailand’s frozen shrimp products to China also declined in last year (2019). Therefore, this reflects that the competitiveness of Thailand's frozenshrimp trade with China is lower than the aforementioned two countries. In addition, by investigation and analysis of a large amount of data,combined with competitive potential studies,the study found that there are many problemsaffecting Thailand’s exports of frozen shrimp products to China, because the production cost of Thailand’s shrimp industry is higher than competitors, making it difficult to increase production potential and leading to Thailand’s frozen shrimp. The price is higher than that of foreign countries,causing Thai frozen shrimp exports to be at a disadvantage in the competition. Specifically, the shortage of funds, insufficient raw materials and labor,and limited cultivation area of Thai shrimp farms make the cost higher than competitors and cannot fully increase production capacity for consumer needs; Thailand’s frozen shrimp exports are also affected by the appreciationof the Thai baht in the global economy and trade barriers; At present, the main problem is that the structure and production capacity of Thailand's shrimp business are not optimal. However, the current government does not have good policies and solutions to these problems.
This article believes that Thai frozen shrimp products stillhave their own characteristics and advantages in many aspects. For example, Thai shrimp products have clear quality and standards, and can be traced.The shrimp industry is also currently responding well to the epidemic.In addition, according to the latest Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed by China and ASEAN, Thailand does not need to pay tariffs on Chinese shrimp exports, etc., which gives Thailand a competitive advantage compared with Ecuador and India.Therefore, this article suggests that, in order to further develop and promote the efficient production and export of Thaifrozen shrimp to China, the Thai government should introduce new measures to encourage and promote the export of shrimp to China, such as tax reduction for shrimp farmers, help entrepreneurs solve the problem of lack of labor in the shrimp industry,encourage shrimp farmers and exporters to improve technology and reduce costs,optimize trade procedures and detailed implementation measures of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, to increase competitive advantage.
Keywords: Thailand, Frozen shrimp, Trade with China, Competitiveness
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