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| 我国人口年龄结构对居民消费影响研究 摘要 近年来，随着我国经济的高速发展，我国的居民消费率却呈现下降趋势。过低的居民消费率会导致我国有效需求不足，从而影响我国的经济发展。本文以人口年龄结构为出发点，在理论和实证上分别对我国人口年龄结构变动与我国居民消费之间的关系进行了探讨。运用我国31个省市自治区2006-2015年的面板数据，将少年儿童抚养比和老年人口抚养比作为人口年龄结构的变量引入，选用固定效应模型针对我国人口年龄结构变动对居民消费率的影响进行了实证分析。结果显示，少年儿童抚养比以及老年人口抚养比对居民消费率均产生正的影响。最后，本文结合我国目前人口年龄结构和居民消费的现状，提出了一些相关的政策建议。 关键词：居民消费率；人口年龄结构；固定效应模型 Abstract In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, China's consumption rate has shown a downward trend. The low consumption rate will lead to the lack of effective demand in China, thus affecting the economic development of our country. Based on the age structure of the population as the starting point of the starting point, in the theoretical and Empirical Analysis on the relationship between change of age respectively. The structure of China's population and household consumption in China is discussed. Using the panel data of China's 31 provinces and autonomous regions in 2006-2015, the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio as the age structure of the population variables, using fixed effects model for the impact on the household consumption rate is an empirical analysis of changes in age the structure of China's population. The results show that the youth dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio has positive influence of residents' consumption rate. Finally, the combination of China's current population age structure and The current situation of residents' consumption, and puts forward some relevant policy recommendations. Key words: Residents' consumption rate; age structure of population; fixed effect model |
