摘要

 

目前，我国房地产经济过热，即使中央一直强调“房住不炒”的概念，在一线城市，随着房价的不断上涨，仍旧有“买房越多，财富越多”的观点。房价越来越高，加重了社会大多数工薪阶层的负担，不利于社会的和谐发展。利率作为一个重要货币政策工具，它的变动会通过房地产市场的供应和需求端影响到房地产市场的价格。

 

本文选取房地产价格指数作为研究范围的指标，研究在利率市场化的进程下，贷款利率对房地产价格指数的影响。联合理论分析与实证分析，在用理论说明利率上升会抑制房价之后，建立VAR模型，进行实证研究。

 

实证结果表明，长期利率比短期利率对房价的影响作用更大，贷款利率的提高会抑制全国房价上涨。利率近十年来一直在小幅下降，这样做虽然减少了中小企业的融资成本，但是会持续的刺激经济，推高房地产市场的火热。

 

最后，本文针对以上分析结果提出一些相应的政策建议。本文认为政府我国应坚持不断完善利率市场化改革，加强调控房地产市场的供需矛盾，同时加强市场监管，引导房地产市场健康平稳发展。

 

关键词：银行贷款利率；货币政策；房地产价格波动

 

Abstract

 

At present, country's real estate economy is overheated.Even though the central government has always emphasized the concept of "housing to live without speculation", in first-tier cities,as housing prices continue to rise, there is still a view of "the more you buy, the more wealth". Housing prices are getting higher and higher,adding to the burden of the majority of the working-class in society, which is not conducive to the harmonious development of society. As an important monetary policy tool,interest rate changes will affect the price of the real estate market through the supply and demand side of the real estate market.

 

This article selects three interest rates as the influencing factors of the research.Using the real estate price index as an indicator of the scope of research, we studied the influence of loan interest rates on the realestate price index under the process of interest rate marketization. Combined theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,after using theories to explain that rising interest rates will suppress housing prices, empirical research is carried out to establish a VAR model.

 

The empirical results show that long-term interest rates have a greater impact on housing prices than short-term interest rates,and the increase in loan interest rates will curb the rise in housing prices across the country. Interest rates have been declining slightly for the past ten years.Although this has reduced the financing costs of small and medium-sized enterprises,it will continue to stimulate the economy and push up the real estate market.

 

Finally, this article puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations based on the above analysis results. This article believes that the government of my country should continue to improve the reform of interest rate marketization,strengthen the regulation of the contradiction between supply and demand in the real estate market, and at the same time strengthen market supervision to guide the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.

 

Key Words: Bank lending rates；Monetary policy；The fluctuating price of real estate